Forwardmärkte bleiben stabil.
BDI Forward Curve
Baltic Dry fällt Spot unter 1000
Januar 18, 2012
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Politik, Weltwirtschaftskrise, Wirtschaft | Mit Tag(s) versehen: BDI, Commodity, Finanzkrise, Forward Curve, Politik, Wirtschaft | 
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Open Brainstorm: Cash-flow Steuer
Januar 12, 2012Mal gleich einen Disclaimer vorab: das ganze hier ist nicht zu ende gedacht. Kommentare, Vorschläge und Verrisse sind gleichermaßen willkommen.
Beim Lesen von der Meinung von Wirtschaftswurm zur Finanztransaktionssteuer ist mir eine Idee wieder eingefallen, über die ich schon mal sinniert habe: Könnte man nicht statt Steuer auf Mehrwert, Gewinne, Einkommen und aktuell Finanztransaktionen einfach eine Steuer auf elektronische Zahlungsströme, Neudeutsch „Cash flows“, erheben? Die Steuer muss prozentual sehr klein sein. Ich habe kein Zahlenmaterial um abzuschätzen wie hoch die Steuer sein müsste um die o.g. Steuerarten zu ersetzen. Aber die Steuer wäre nur sinnvoll wenn der Zinsatz unter 1% liegt. Mag sein, dass dies zu klein ist um genügend hohe Einnahmen zu erreichen. Dann wäre die Idee schon gestorben. So oder so würde ich das gerne mal durchdenken.
Vorteile:
- Drastische Vereinfachung des Steuersystems
- Die Steuer ist praktisch nicht zu umgehen außer durch die Verwendung von Bargeld oder Tauschhandel. Beides würden eher weniger Vermögende Menschen mit kleineren Beträgen machen. Anders als derzeit, wäre es also einfacher für Arme die Steuer zum umgehen als für große Vermögen.
- Ein Transaktionssteuer für alle Börsen und OTC-Transaktionen ist mit inklusive. Und sie lässt sich im Gegensatz zu der Merkel’schen Finanztransaktionsteuer nicht so leicht umgehen, weil die Steuer schon fällig wird, wenn man sein Geld zwecks Umgehung ins Ausland überweist.
- Es findet keine direkte Enteignung statt wie bei einer Vermögenssteuer. Erst bei der Umschichtung oder Verwendung des Vermögens wird die Steuer fällig.
Nachteile
- Ähnlich wie bei einer Umsatzsteuer gäbe es einen Anreiz zu größeren Firmeneinheiten und Fusionen, um Zahlungsströme zu vermeiden. Daher muss der Steuersatz auch klein sein, um hier nicht zu stark verzerrend zu wirken.
Was meint ihr?
4 Kommentare | Politik, Wirtschaft | Mit Tag(s) versehen: Finanztransaktionssteuer, Politik, Steuer, Wirtschaft | Permalink
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Der Baltic Dry Index fält – wie erwartet
Januar 6, 2012Auf Bloomberg sieht man einen schnell fallenden Baltic Dry Index.
BDI on Bloomberg
Heißt das die Weltwirtschaft knickt ein? Möglich ist das, aber wenn es so ist ist es keine neue Information. Denn die Forward-Märkte erwarten schon länger einen steilen Fall Frachtraten.
- FFA BDI Forward Curve
Die Kurve ist vom 4. auf den 5. Januar zwar über alle Laufzeiten auch gefallen, aber nicht so stark wie der Index selbst. Aktuell erwarten die Händler einen weiteren Fall des Index auf 1.200 Punkte. Gut 200 Punkte tiefer als heute.
Update 11. Jan 2012
Die Forwardmärkte sind inzwischen auch ein wenig gefallen und gehen nun von einer Bodenbildung um 1070 aus.
BDI Forward-Kurve
1 Kommentar | Politik, Weltwirtschaftskrise, Wirtschaft | Mit Tag(s) versehen: Baltic Dry Index, BDI, FFA | Permalink
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Brent ICE future shows declining prices
Dezember 6, 2011The current future curve of Brent oil contract on the Intercontinantal Exchange don’t particularly point into the direction of a future energy price shock. Sven years from now, oil is marked at 92.5 USD down from today’s 111.
Brent ICE Future Forward Curve
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Hacking My Company
November 25, 2011Today I received the following message. Sole purpose seems to be to tempt me to open the attachment in order to break in our system. Interestingly, it is highly customized including real existing names, branch offices and counterparts. As the trojan horse also remained undetected by the virus scanners, I assume it was constructed for the very purpose. Nice try.
Corruption at <Company Name> !!!
At this very moment, without you noticing it – <Company Name> is becoming a corrupt company!!!
Hamburg’s trader <Real Trader Name> has misappropriated company funds during several years. He set up fictious deals with the power broker <Counterparty Name> from London – the fraud’s losses sum up to more than EUR 2.300.000!
So called “switches” or “triangular deals” were intentionally booked and charged with broker fee. Those deals are supposed to be free of charge. Several hundreds of those deals exist between <Real Trader Name> and <Counterparty Name>. It is not possible to book those deals falsely by accident. Both parties – trader and broker – have to confirm same prices, volumes and broker fee. If one party books falsely, it is discovered by the other one. Only if both parties confirm each other the deals will float into the system.
An internal investigation is still running. <Counterparty Name> already repaid the money. So there exists consensus that those deals are not legitimate. Claims of technical mistakes were made. The money is back, but there are no consequences for the corrupt employee <Real Trader Name>.Why not? This was not done by mistake. It is a corrupt and criminal setup. Your company’s management is fostering corruption and prevents transparency. <Company Name>’s management must be aware that it compromises every employee’s trust and goodwill by protecting corrupt individuals. <Company Name> automatically admits complicity in this affair of corruption when it does not act in a transparent and just way.
See for yourselves and browse through the attached list. It contains all switch deals that were booked by <Branch Location>’s traders from 2008 on. Every row contains two deals with their according booking IDs. Those two deals make up one triangular deal.
Sort by name and broker company. Look for triangular deals that were booked with broker fee. Where those deals appear systematically, a corrupt scheme is behind it.Verify the deals; make sure you understand what is going on. Once you understand the full scope, ask your superior if he knew about it. Do not make way for concealment and corruption.
This message went to over 1,000 recipients within your company.
This message will eventually reach <Company Name>’s business partners.
This message will eventually reach the press.
Kommentar schreiben » | Verschiedenes | Mit Tag(s) versehen: Anti-Virus, Malicious Software, Scanners, Security, Trojan Horse | Permalink
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Occupy HSH Nordbank
November 3, 2011Derweil in Hamburg vor dem HSH Haupteingang
(Quelle: Peter)
Kommentar schreiben » | Freiheit, Politik, Wirtschaft | Mit Tag(s) versehen: Deutschland, Finanzkrise, Politik, Wirtschaft, Wirtschaftskrise | Permalink
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A EFSF Leverage Increases German Guarantee
Oktober 24, 2011There is a lot of talk going on the EFSF increasing its firepower by leveraging up the current total notional of 440 billion Euro. The politicians in Germany try sell this to the people by emphasizing that Germany’s stake in the guarantee will stay at 211 billion and that the German government will not increase this in any case.
Many commentators both in the media and blogs argued that, while the notional of the guarantee stay the same, the risk increases proportional to the leverage. I agree, but I would like to point out additionally that the notional of the German stake will also increase. Not explicitly in the contracts of course, but implicitly. Just like the countries, with the notable exception of Iceland, quickly guaranteed all debts of their banking system as soon insolvency was threatening, the countries will also ride to help the EFSF if it has solvency problems.
A leveraged EFSF will be the central pillar of the European debt pyramid. It seems virtually impossible to me that Europe will ever let it default. But preventing the EFSF default means putting more money on the table. Either now or later. Politician just choose later, because it circumvents the inconvenient tour de parliaments.
3 Kommentare | Neokommunismus, Politik, Wirtschaft | Mit Tag(s) versehen: Angela Merkel, EFSF, European Financial Stability Facility, Eurozone, German, German Empire, Germany, Iceland | Permalink
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Neuer Merle Hazard: The Ballad of Diamond Jim
Oktober 19, 2011The lyrics can be found here.
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Europe is Japan, USA is worse
Oktober 13, 2011At least if looking at the 10y government bonds yields:
10y government bond yields
(Source: Page 40 from this PDF)
3 Kommentare | Uncategorized | Permalink
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RAP NEWS 9 – The Economy w. Ron Paul & Peter Joseph
Oktober 3, 2011Not entirely with the brilliance f previous editions, but great nevertheless.
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ECB Collateral Changes
September 21, 2011Today the ECB surpirsed everyone with changes to it’s rules of egilible collateral. The following things were changed:
First, the Eurosystem has abolished the eligibility requirement (Sections 6.2.1.5 and 6.2.1.6) that debt instruments issued by credit institutions, other than covered bank bonds, are only eligible if they are admitted to trading on a regulated market.
So in plain English: The ECB now also accepts any debt instrument issued by banks even though they are not traded on regulated market and thus do not come with a market price. This is a mayor relaxation of colleteral standards. Cynics might claim that markt-to-fanansy enters the Euro monetary system. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
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Common Misconceptions on Eurobonds
August 23, 2011
Sinn Targets Eurobonds. Image via Wikipedia
There are many common misconceptions on Eurobonds out there. I was going to compile a list, but the German economic newspaper Handelsblatt did me the favor of having them all in one article – however not identified as such.
5 Kommentare | Politik, Weltwirtschaftskrise, Wirtschaft | Mit Tag(s) versehen: Bonds, Eurobond, European Financial Stability Facility, Eurozone, Germany, Gross domestic product, Handelsblatt, Hans-Werner Sinn | Permalink
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How to make Eurobonds work
August 16, 2011
Junker, "My Name is Bond, Eurobond". Image via Wikipedia
The political pressure on Germany and other surplus countries within the Eurozone to introduce Eurobonds is constantly increasing. I’m not a big fan of Eurobonds without further political integration, but given the problems of the deficit countries, I fear we may not have the time to introduce a common democratic European government to orderly introduce Eurobonds. As I write this, Angela Merkel and Sarkozy just pleaded for a common European Economic Government. As Merkel’s CDU always cited this too as a prerequisite to the introduction of Eurobonds, I guess that the chances that we actually will get Eurobonds are increased, despite Merkel saying otherwise.
So the question addressed in this post is: Can Eurobonds work without further political integration and thus without creating a „transfer union“. Yes, that is possible.
7 Kommentare | Politik, Wirtschaft | Mit Tag(s) versehen: Angela Merkel, Eurobond, European Central Bank, European Union, Eurozone, Germany, Institutions of the European Union, Nicolas Sarkozy | Permalink
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Openleaks vs. CCC
August 14, 2011There is some trouble going on in the CCC camp as the CCC expelled Daniel Domscheidt-Berg from it’s club. The CCC board was irritated, if not irate, because Daniel asked the hackers at the camp to look into his and other leaking platforms. The CCC claims that Daniel wants to lever on the clubs reputation and insisted that it turned similar requests by other parties down previously and Daniel should have known. Here is the talk that Daniel held on the camp that apparently caused this anger.
To be honest, nothing in this talk struck me as calling for trouble. Seeing this talk, it is hard for me to imagine that the CCC decision was biased and well thought through. I also don’t see the point in criticizing Daniel as a person. His project is not ideal, especially because he didn’t deliver on the transparency yet that the name OpenLeaks promises. However, what Daniel said in this talk is well in line with previous talks, with what common sense, and with information that I obtained in some private Email exchanges with the OpenLeaks team. So, unless someone else comes up with a more promising project, I hope the OpenLeaks team proceeds and we finally have a leak platform up and running again.
2 Kommentare | Politik | Mit Tag(s) versehen: OpenLeaks, Wikileaks | Permalink
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Relationship Benefit in Credit Ratings
August 7, 2011
President Signs the "Credit Rating Agency Reform Act of 2006". Image via Wikipedia
S&P downgraded the USA from AAA to AA+. For me, this downgrade is a no-brainer. After all, the rating is an estimation of the probability that the USA will not service its debts. Either because it is not able to or it is not willingly to follow it’s obligations. Given that all US debt is dollar denominated, it seems inconceivable that it cannot service its debt. But given the chaos in the congress its very possible that it one day may not be willingly to do so. „AAA“ indicates that this chance of this happening in the next year is 0.01% or once in 10,000 years. That seems very optimistic to me.
Therefore, from my perspective, the downgrade is no surprise. The only questionable thing is: Why not much earlier? The congress gone insane is not new. One possible answer come from Prof. Thomas Mählmann‘s latest research publication „Is There a Relationship Benefit in Credit Ratings?„. He finds for the rating agency S&P that
This paper documents the existence of relationship benefits in credit ratings. In
particular, the paper shows that firms with longer rating agency relationships have
better (i.e., closer to AAA) credit ratings. [...] controlling for observables, the firms with longer relationships, while having higher ratings, do not have lower default rates.
In other words, the ratings of bond issuers with a long lasting relationship with S&P, have higher default rates than equal ratings of new customers of the rating agency. In case of the USA that means: you shouldn’t have taken the AAA too serious in the first place, given the relationship length of a century or so.
2 Kommentare | Uncategorized | Mit Tag(s) versehen: AAA, Bond credit rating, Credit rating, Credit rating agency, Debt, Standard & Poors, United States, United States public debt | Permalink
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